Hazard Analysis

The goal of Hazard Analysis is the PTHA production along densely spaced points for all relevant NEAM shorelines, based on the earthquake model, the tsunami database and the probabilistic framework developed in Probabilistic Model. In particular, the ‘community’ seismic source model will be implemented for all the relevant seismic regions as follows. All the alternative source model implementations will be weighted according to their credibility.

The results will consist of hazard curves at all target sites, reporting the probability of exceedance versus different tsunami intensity levels (surface elevation, runup height) offshore and onshore. Hazard curves obtained as a result of alternative assumptions will be treated as an ensemble to obtain a PDF quantifying the epistemic uncertainty on their assessment. As reference, two central tendency values (mean and median hazard curves) and the confidence interval (defined by the 16th and the 84th percentiles hazard curves) will beprovided. These results will be tested against available databases of past tsunamis.

Several tools will be developed for analysing the results and for extracting and plotting curves, hazard maps (the intensity associated to an assigned probability) and probability maps (the probability of a given intensity). This PTHA database will be linked to TSUMAPS-NEAM website and it will constitute the back-end for the creation of dissemination materials and for the web-tools.